Can probability explain uncanny coincidences?
Personal synchronicities sometimes outpace chance, some researchers insist.
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Summary
Statistical and cognitive accounts explain many uncanny coincidences without invoking paranormal causes. The key is to consider all opportunities for events to match, not only the match that occurred; to account for hidden causes and dependencies; and to recognize that memory and perception make rare events feel rarer and more meaningful than they are.
- The law of truly large numbers means that events extremely unlikely in one specified instance can become expected across vast numbers of opportunities.
- Coincidences can result from hidden causes, psychological selection and recall, broad definitions of matching, and accumulated interactions.
- People commonly misjudge randomness and coincidence because they focus on the observed outcome rather than the broader set of possible outcomes.
Deeper Insight
A dissenting position accepts that probability explains many coincidences but argues that skeptics can apply large-number reasoning too broadly. On this view, the relevant question is not merely whether some astonishing event was likely to occur somewhere, but whether the details, timing, repetition, and personal meaning of a particular pattern are better explained by chance or by an unknown connection. Existing arguments do not settle that comparison in every case.
- The existence of billions of people and many opportunities makes some extraordinary coincidences likely, but does not by itself show that chance is the best explanation for every coincidence.
- Some advocates of synchronicity argue that recurring or highly structured personal coincidences may contain significance not captured by general appeals to large numbers.
- A coincidence can be evidence for revising a favored causal theory, even when it does not establish the alternative; its evidential force depends on the competing explanations and their prior plausibility.
Sources · 9
Featured · Analysis · math.uchicago.edu
Methods for Studying Coincidences
## Methods for Studying Coincidences PERSl DlACONlS and FREDERICK MOSTELLER* This article illustrates basic statistical techniques for studying coincidences. These include data-gathering methods (informal anecdotes, case studies, observational studies, and experiments) and methods of analysis (explo
Read sourceAnalysis · sharonrawlette.com
How Skeptics Misapply the Law of Truly Large Numbers – Sharon Hewitt Rawlette, PhD
How Skeptics Misapply the Law of Truly Large Numbers – Sharon Hewitt Rawlette, PhD ## How Skeptics Misapply the Law of Truly Large Numbers The fact that there are 7 billion people in this world means that some pretty mind-boggling coincidences are likely to happen to a lot of people just by chance.
Read sourceAnalysis · cocosci.princeton.edu
doi:10.1016/j.cognition.2006.03.004
##### From mere coincidences to meaningful ##### discoveries q,qq Thomas L. Griffiths a,*, Joshua B. Tenenbaum b a Department of Cognitive and Linguistic Sciences, Brown University, Box 1978, Providence, RI 02912, United States b Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences, Massachusetts Institute of
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