Can polls create self-fulfilling outcomes?
Election polls can manufacture winners by nudging undecided voters toward the reported leader, proponents of the bandwagon effect argue.
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Summary
Research generally supports a conditional bandwagon mechanism: poll information can shift attitudes and choices toward the reported majority or leading candidate. Controlled experiments find effects on policy opinions and electoral outcomes, while the size of those effects depends on prior commitment, group identity, social pressure, and whether exposure is biased.
- Experiments find that reported levels of public support can significantly change individual policy attitudes.
- News reports containing poll information have produced opinion differences of roughly 10–15 percentage points in some experimental conditions.
- Biased exposure to poll results consistently increased the likelihood that the poll-favoured candidate was elected in laboratory experiments.
Deeper Insight
A dissenting interpretation emphasizes limits on generalizing laboratory and survey experiments to elections. Polls may sometimes persuade, but they can also reveal information, reinforce existing preferences, or trigger an underdog response. Effects may be smaller when voters are strongly committed, understand methodological flaws, or encounter competing polls and campaign signals.
- The existence of a bandwagon effect does not establish that polls routinely determine real-world election outcomes; the mechanism remains context-dependent.
- People may respond differently to majority information, including moving toward a minority or underdog position rather than conforming to the reported leader.
- Awareness that poll exposure is biased reduces its effect, although experimental evidence indicates that it may not eliminate it.
Sources · 9
Featured · Analysis · gsb.stanford.edu
Are Polls and Probabilities Self-Fulfilling Prophecies?
Are Polls and Probabilities Self-Fulfilling Prophecies? | Stanford Graduate School of Business # Are Polls and Probabilities Self-Fulfilling Prophecies? By David Rothschild Neil Malhotra March 23 2013| Working Paper No. 3105 Political Economy Psychologists have long observed that people conform to m
Read sourceAnalysis · sciencedirect.com
Can biased polls distort electoral results? Evidence from the lab - ScienceDirect
Can biased polls distort electoral results? Evidence from the lab - ScienceDirect Skip to main contentSkip to article - Download full issue - View PDF Search ScienceDirect ## European Journal of Political Economy Volume 78, June 2023, 102383 # Can biased polls distort electoral results? Evidence fro
Read sourceAnalysis · link.springer.com
Biased polls: investigating the pressures survey respondents feel | Acta Politica | Springer Nature Link
Biased polls: investigating the pressures survey respondents feel | Acta Politica | Springer Nature Link # Biased polls: investigating the pressures survey respondents feel - Original Article - Open access - Published: 29 July 2024 - Ryan L. Claassen ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-4781-3039 1 & - John B
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